Fareed Zakaria set off the alarm bells during his CNN program on Sunday. But he did it with good news, not bad. He said the coronavirus fatalities might be much lower than earlier projected. That’s great.
But I’m Wondering
But for someone who has been under self-quarantine for more than two weeks I’m wondering. Could I have been running errands all along rather than having groceries delivered? Do all the stores, restaurants and bars really need to close? Can fewer people go jobless and without income?
Flying Blind Without Testing
Probably not, he says, because without adequate testing, we’re all just flying blind.
Below is a link to his Washington Post column where all of this is explained.
University of Washington Model
The University of Washington model, which has been used by the White House coronavirus team, predicted on March 26 that with social distancing through June 1, U.S.deaths over the next four months would be about 81,000, he said. And by April 8 (after five revisions) the number stands at 60,415. That number is about the same as the number who likely will have died from this year’s seasonal flu. But it’s a far shot from the earlier estimates of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths that the White House team used.
Maybe Social Distancing Worked Better Than Expected
Huh? Maybe social distancing and isolation have worked better than expected. As someone housebound, I hope so. As the millions now jobless and whose businesses are on the brink of ruin, this damned well better be the case.
Hospitalizations Also Down
Predictions for hospitalization rates also have proven to be overestimated. Okay, so maybe it’s better to be over-prepared. We estimated for a worst-case scenario so we aren’t surprised. But does this mean other people are not being treated so the medical teams are waiting for corona patients who just don’t arrive?
WHO Overestimated
In March, according to Zakaria, the World Health Organization said 3.4 percent of people with the virus would die, a shocking statistic 34 times higher than the flu. A week later the number dropped to 1 percent, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, of the White House corona task force. That’s still 10 times as high as the seasonal flu. But the Centers for Disease Control numbers are much higher than these.
Carriers Without Symptoms
Some studies find that 75 to 80 percent of people may show no symptoms at all. That means without adequate testing, we just don’t know. In my county of 230,000 people, so far 770 tests have been done. Only 116 have been positive with 10 of those hospitalized.
We Help Control Our Destiny
What all this data suggests is that death rates may drop somewhat. And many people may be walking around exposing vulnerable populations. Care in interactions remains the best advice. We control our own destiny in many regards. And we can’t “open up” the economy any time soon. I’ll just stay at home.
Zakaria’s CNN program, Global Public Square, airs on Sundays.