OK, so the man who won’t be named wants to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. That’s a key reason for this disastrous and whiplash tariff thing.
But how long will that take?
Will that president even be in power by the time some of these factories will be built? How long will that take? What kind of environmental regulations will need to be relaxed? How will neighbors like that?
Who will work there?
Since the current GOP administration wants to deport as many people as possible, without due process, who will try to immigrate? How many will be here needing or willing to risk going for jobs?
Unemployment rates
The U.S. unemployment rate has been hovering at between 4 and 4.2 percent for the past couple of years. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, according to information I saw on Michael Smerconish’s show today. Instead, that number reflects those actually looking for jobs. It doesn’t count those who have taken themselves out of the workforce. That number totals about 1.7 million people, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Others have taken early retirement. Some have opted to stay home with children. Some simply are seeking a better work-life balance.
Then there’s the birth rate
The U.S. birth rate has been declining since the Baby Boom generation, with a sharp drop after the 2008 recession. And women today are expected to reproduce 1.59 children, compared with 2.1 births per woman in 2007.
And why would that be? Economic factors for one, including childcare and education. Social factors, including women pursuing careers and higher education, delaying childbirth. Women are marrying later, or perhaps not at all.
They are outperforming males in higher education and often on the job. Women used to marry for security and to build a family with a trusted partner. Women often earn more than spouses. Sometimes spouses aren’t happy about that.
Other factors
Attitudes are changing. It’s okay not to get married. It’s okay to be a single parent. There’s a shift toward smaller families. There’s a greater emphasis on personal goals. And evidence suggests some men use porn rather than dating and romance. And, of course, contraception and abortion are available, the latter still in some places.
So what?
This all comes as the Baby Boomer generation. is aging out of the workforce, relying on Social Security, Medicare and, in some cases, Medicaid. But we have a smaller “donor” group to keep those systems functioning. People were upset when Elon Musk referred to Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” It isn’t fraudulent. But the way it works is that working adults pay into the program, which, in turn, pays out benefits to their parents and others, who donated before reaching retirement. However, with fewer adults in the workforce, the fund is slowly going bankrupt. This can be fixed by extending the income cap beyond $168,600, raising the age at which benefits can be collected and/or limiting payments based upon individual incomes. (Does Musk or Jeff Bezos need Social Security in retirement?)
Factory workers & more
So, as should be evident above, we need a full-employment workforce to meet the demands of these programs, most of which benefit the elderly and the poor. And just having more babies isn’t working. While we legally admit about 700,000 immigrants per year, many economists say we need about twice that to fuel the needs of industry.
Many immigrants work in agriculture. Others work in healthcare, many of them in the nursing homes that are and will house the aging baby boomers. (And we don’t have enough beds, but that’s another story. And most seniors will be on Medicaid, which many in Congress want to cut.)
Others work in factories and in hospitality industries. In other words, we need them.
Plenty have opined about tariffs
Plenty of folks have expressed their opinions about the wisdom of the tariff war – especially the whiplash of on-again, off-again policy decisions.
My point is we cannot develop a new inside-America economy without the workers to fuel it. And it will take a lot of time and planning to go from a worldwide economy to a U.S.-only economy. We’re royally offending our one-time allies and driving many to make new import-export deals with China.
It just won’t work
I made a C in my only college economics class, I’ll admit. But isn’t it obvious? This just won’t work.